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FEBRUARY 5,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

OOPS – From The Hill:  Iowa Democratic Party officials have found errors in the its caucus results amid a review, according to The Des Moines Register.  State party officials confirmed to the Register on Friday that the final tally is being altered as discrepancies have been found.  Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton was declared the winner after Monday night’s caucuses, defeating rival Bernie Sanders by just 0.2 percentage points.  "Both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns have flagged a very small number of concerns for us, and we are looking at them all on a case-by-case basis," Iowa Democratic Party spokesman Sam Lau said.  Democratic educational policies have never stressed a knowledge of math, so this isn't surprising.  Plus or minus five percent would meet liberal standards.

BERNIE, WE HARDLY KNOW YE – News outlets are telling us nothing substantial about the man.  Nice, kindly old Bernie.  Man of principle.  But what are his principles?  Everything I've found out is depressing.  Bernie is an honest Marxist.  He served for a time on a kibbutz (collective farm) in Israel before that movement was essentially abandoned by the Israelis, and we now learn that it was the most left-wing kibbutz available in Israel, one that remembered Joe Stalin fondly.  Bernie was also a conscientious objector and never served in the military.  Bernie is to the left of the Democratic Party, of which he is not a member.  Honest yes.  Warm yes.  Correct no.  More to come.

LET'S SEE IF IT WORKS – From Fox:   Officials at an Oklahoma school district said they wanted to send a clear warning to protect against potential attacks, so they put up signs on Monday alerting that staff members could be carrying guns.  The signs were erected at public schools in Okay, according to the Muskogee Phoenix. The town's police department was reportedly disbanded in 2014, and even though sheriff's deputies are available, Superintendent Charles McMahan says that may not be enough.  "We don't want to be a soft target," he told the newspaper.  One sign reads, "ATTENTION: Please be aware that certain staff members at Okay Public Schools can be legally armed and may use whatever force is necessary to protect our students."  It's called "deterrence."  Those who are armed are trained and approved.  They are a first line of defense, which is the line that is missing in most schools.  I'd be curious to see how many schools adopt policies like this, and how effective those policies are.  I'll bet they're very effective. 

HILLARY'S BUSINESS – From The New York Times:   In response to a question at Thursday night’s debate, Hillary Clinton said she would “look into” the possibility of releasing transcripts of her paid remarks to banking, corporate and financial services companies like Goldman Sachs.  But by Friday morning, it did not appear that much looking was underway.  Joel Benenson, Mrs. Clinton’s pollster, gave little indication at a Wall Street Journal breakfast with reporters that the transcripts would be forthcoming.  “I don’t think voters are interested in the transcripts of her speeches,” he said.  Whether they are made public is up to the Clinton campaign. Speaking contracts typically give the speaker the right to decide whether any material from a particular speech can be shared beyond the room. Goldman Sachs, for one, declined to make an on-the-record statement.  We'll soon see how demanding the media is on this.  I can't imagine Hillary wanting these speeches made public, as they were undoubtedly friendly to Wall Street, playing right into Bernie's hands.

February 5, 2016       Permalink

INSANE – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   How many Democrats actually know what Bernie Sanders stands for?  How many know what the real meaning of "progressive" is?   (Hint:  It's a codeword for the fringe left.)  I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that a man who honeymooned in the Soviet Union is catching up to Hillary Clinton in nationwide polling.  From The Hill:  

Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has dramatically cut into the nationwide lead of primary rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll released Friday finds Clinton leading the race with 44 percent support, compared to 42 percent support for Sanders, within the survey's margin of error.

The last iteration of the poll in December had Clinton leading Sanders nationwide by a 61-30 point margin.

“Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The poll also finds that Sanders matches up better with top Republican primary candidates than Clinton.

In head-to-head matchups the Vermont senator leads GOP front-runner Donald Trump by 10 points, edges Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 4 points and ties Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

While Clinton still tops Trump by 5 points, she ties Cruz and trails Rubio by 7 points.

The poll also finds that Clinton has a 17-point unfavorable rating, only besting Trump in that category, who has a 25-point unfavorable rating.

Sanders has a 9-point favorable rating nationwide, only trailing Rubio, who is seen favorably by a 14-point margin.

COMMENT:  It's only one poll, but there'll be no celebratory dinner at the Clinton residence tonight.

Look, Sanders hasn't been examined critically by the electorate, and no Republican political guns have thus far been trained on him.  When people understand what he actually believes, I'm guessing the enthusiasm will cool considerably. 

And, by the way, he isn't even a member of the Democratic Party.  Bernie's a socialist.  I can just see the Republican commercials if he should get the nomination:  American men slogging through the battlefields, and Bernie Sanders cozing up to the old Soviets.  Not pretty.

February 5, 2016       Permalink

SHAFTED BY IRAN AGAIN – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:   The Obamans thought the Iran nuclear deal would improve relations with Tehran.  They should think again, or maybe think for the first time.  From Iranian presstv.ir: 

Commander of Iran’s Army Major General Ataollah Salehi says the country will enhance its missile capabilities despite US-led efforts to curb them.

The US government imposed fresh sanctions on Iran over its missile activities, a day after Tehran and the West agreed to implement a nuclear accord, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Washington argued that Iran's missile activities violated a UN Security Council which bars the Islamic Republic from developing missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads.

Tehran says no Iranian missile has such an intention and new sanctions are thus illegal, which also breach the JCPOA.

On Thursday, Gen. Salehi said, "We are neither paying any attention to the resolutions against Iran, nor implementing them."

"We are doing our job and our missile program for the future will be stronger and more precise," he told reporters in Tehran. "This is not a breach of the JCPOA,” he added.

The Army chief said Iran’s weapons present no threat to friendly and neighboring countries.

"They are rather a threat to the enemies of this establishment."

COMMENT:  Iran is getting stronger and stronger, while we cut our defenses.  Eventually, Iran will have those nuclear-capable missiles, if they don't already have them.  They are ICBM's, and the only purpose of ICBM's is to carry nuclear warheads.  You don't send a missile 6,000 miles to explode a hundred pounds of dynamite. 

February 5, 2016       Permalink 

ANOTHER ECONOMIC WARNING – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  And we've been getting more of them every week.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Job growth slowed even more than anticipated in January, the Department of Labor reported Friday, as the economy added 151,000 new payroll jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.9 percent, the lowest such mark since February of 2008.

The month's job creation fell short of the 188,000 mark that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg had expected.

Friday's report revealed that job growth was faster than previously thought in November, but slower in December. Revisions to those two months' numbers, taken together marked down job growth by 2,000.

With those changes, job creation has averaged 231,000 over the past three months. That rate is well above the 100,000 jobs each month that Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has said is more than enough to keep the unemployment rate falling.

COMMENT:  In fact, we need to create 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.  This report, added to others, tells us we may be entering a recession or a near-recession. 

Clearly, if the trend continues, it will have political implications in the election.

February 5,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 4,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS – As expected, Marco Rubio is moving up in New Hampshire polls, but most experts on the state believe Trump will still win the primary.  On the Dem side, Bernie Sanders is still well ahead, although some polls show Hillary gaining some points.  The key question is whether voters actually like Bernie, or whether his support is a protest vote against Hillary's perceived dishonesty, phoniness, greed and corruption.  The perception is correct.  Another issue, rising across the internet, is whether Bill Clinton is hurting or helping his wife.  He usually polls positively as an ex-president, but the campaign has reminded voters of his White House scandals.  In addition he looks awful, and that reminds voters that he and Hillary are getting into their elder years.

COMMON SENSE FROM THE CATHOLIC BISHOPS OF GHANA – From CNS – (CNSNews.com) – In reference to two former Guantanamo Bay prisoners who were transferred to Ghana in West Africa, the Catholic Bishops’ Conference there said it was a “wrong and dangerous” decision, that the two men were “not refugees but time-bombs” who clearly “pose a threat,” and that the government should send them “back to wherever they came from.”  In a statement with the headline, “Accepting Former Guantanamo Bay Prisoners in Ghana: Wrong and Dangerous,” the Bishops’ Conference noted that the ex-Gitmo prisoner Mahmoud Omar Mohammed Bin Atef used to fight for Osama bin Laden, and the other ex-prisoner, Khalid Shayk Mohammed, had trained with Al Qaeda.  The bishops demonstrate a clarity of thought missing throughout the U.S. Government.  I thought Obama cared about Africa.  Apparently not.

CARLY FADING – Carly Fiorina's campaign began with such promise.  The expert debater started rising impressively in the polls, but then seemed to collapse.  Now she's been cut from Saturday's GOP debate.  From The Politico:   Carly Fiorina has been excluded from Saturday's Republican debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, ABC News announced on Thursday.  The former Hewlett-Packard CEO has lagged her GOP rivals in national and state-level polls, but she complained in an open letter to the Republican National Committee on Wednesday that the debate process is "broken" and urged the RNC to intervene on her behalf.
“Networks are making up these debate rules as they go along — not to be able to fit candidates on the stage — but arbitrarily to decide which candidates make for the best TV in their opinion," she wrote. "Now it is time for the RNC to act in the best interest of the Party that it represents.”  ABC News will not hold an undercard debate for the bottom tier of the winnowing field. Qualifications for the main debate stage included ranking among the top three in the Iowa caucuses, top six in New Hampshire polls or top six nationally.  I like Carly but I don't think her arguments are sound.  There are simply too many Republican candidates.  The Dems have two, so their debates are more focused, and you learn more about each candidate.  The GOP must figure out a way to run debates that make sense, while at the same time not shutting down candidates.  It's a tough order, but one of the benefits of America's oft-criticized "long" campaigns is that we eventually get to know the competitors pretty well. 

February 4,  2016     Permalink

FIELD MARSHAL OBAMA DOES IT AGAIN – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:   We're told how much progress we're making against ISIS.  And then there's the fine print.  From Fox: 

The number of fighters in the Islamic State's army largely "remains the same" as it did a year ago, a U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence estimate tells Fox News.

Officially, ISIS is estimated to have between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters based on the new intelligence estimate, as first reported by USA Today. A year ago, ISIS was estimated to have between 19,000 and 31,000 fighters.

The new estimate means that despite more than 10,000 U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against ISIS starting in August 2014, ISIS largely has maintained the size of its force – due in part to an emerging practice of “forced conscription” and an influx of new members, including foreign fighters flocking to ISIS’ self-declared caliphate.

Territory, however, has been taken back from the vast terror network in that time.

The U.S. military estimates that 40 percent of its territory in Iraq has been retaken. The progress is not so defined in Syria, where just 5 percent of ISIS-controlled land has been retaken. Previous estimates claiming up to 20 percent of ISIS-controlled Syria had been reclaimed have been revised significantly.

COMMENT:  Meanwhile, ISIS has pulled off spectacular overseas attacks, like the ones in Paris.  And it is actively recruiting in the United States.  They have, it's true, lost some territory in Iraq, but ISIS moves around.  It is remarkably flexible, and much larger in scope than Al Qaeda.

I wonder what General of the Army Bernie Sanders would do about ISIS fighters.  Probably give them health benefits.

February 4, 2016       Permalink

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL – AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Marco Rubio is showing some movement in the New Hampshire primary race.  The primary is Tuesday.  Even if Rubio doesn't catch Trump, if he surges over the weekend the focus will be more intently on him, like the horse in the Kentucky Derby who races from behind to win in the end.  From WHDH:

MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) - It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving....

...Donald Trump stays in first, with 36%; Rubio takes over second place, with 15%. Ted Cruz, now in third, has 14%. Jeb Bush, 8%; and John Kasich 7%.

For the rest of the Republicans: Chris Christie, 5 %, Ben Carson, 4%; Carly Fiorina 3% and undecided 8%.

Our tracking poll show it all: Trump on top, but down two points – the first time he's dropped in our poll.

Jeb Bush lost a point; no change for John Kasich.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking about a comeback, and Bernie Sanders is coming down.

Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton – 58% to 36% – a 22 point margin.

But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll.

COMMENT:  Five days to go.   They may be the most critical five days in the presidential races thus far.

February 4, 2016       Permalink

ECONOMIC GLOOM – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  A new unemployment report is disturbing, and can have significant political impact if the trend continues.  From CNBC:

Layoffs surged in January to the highest levels since July as employers in the retail and energy sectors pulled out the pink slips, according to a private survey out Thursday.

U.S.-based companies announced 75,114 planned job cuts last month, up more than 200 percent from a 15-year low in December, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That figure was also 42 percent higher from a year ago.

Retailers were the biggest job cutter, despite a nearly 8 percent bump in U.S. holiday sales in 2015. The sector slashed 22,246 positions, a seven-year high.

Wal-Mart accounted for much of the payroll reductions. The nation's largest retailer said it plans to close 269 stores and expects to let go 16,000 workers.

Macy's said it will also shutter some locations this year, costing 4,820 employees their jobs.

COMMENT:  Some of the layoffs are due to more online shopping.  But online operations require far fewer employees, so there is a net loss of personnel.  The good jobs are disappearing.  The lesser jobs are growing.  No way to run an economy.

February 4,  2016     Permalink